Russian-Ukrainian war as a factor of the world food crisis

Abstract

The article aimed to outline the risks to global food security as a result of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. The theoretical and informational basis of the study were the works of Ukrainian and European government officials, researchers and public figures in the field of agricultural economy and agriculture, as well as reports of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, regional state administrations, and open sources of media. The publications of leading Ukrainian and foreign specialized media outlets, as well as theses voiced by representatives of international organizations on the economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, have been analyzed. The main preconditions for the global food crisis as a result of full-scale Russian aggression against Ukraine have been highlighted. The forecasts for the food stability of our state for the next few years have been analyzed. The dynamics of world prices for grain and oil as a reaction of the world food and energy markets to the course of hostilities in Ukraine have been highlighted. The extremely important role of our country in the world food market has been emphasized and the situation with the food supply of Ukrainian origin to various countries of the European Union, Asia and Africa has been predicted. The regions and countries for which the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be the most disastrous have been outlined. The results of modelling different scenarios of food production by Ukrainian farmers due to different percentages of availability of sown areas of the state have been presented. The inevitability of a global food crisis has been argued, given the role of Ukraine and Russia in the world food market, as well as its direct dependence on the scale and duration of further hostilities and the outcome of the negotiation process between Ukraine and Russia. Intensification of energy problems and, consequently, environmental ones have been forecasted. Two possible ways of developing the situation for Western Europe and the United States have been outlined: increasing the use of fossil fuels and accelerating the climate crisis, or using the opportunity to « switch» the renewable economy and initiate accelerated development of clean renewable energy. The need to reform the world energy policy to strengthen the energy independence of states and minimize the intensification of the environmental crisis has been emphasized. It has been proposed to intensify the efforts of the world community in the development of renewable economy and clean energy to minimize the use of fossil fuels and ensure the stability of the energy systems of states.