Russian Strategy towards Tajikistan

Abstract

In contrast to Moldova and Georgia, the Russian government has sought to maintain stability in Tajikistan. Russian policy has also clearly reflected the geopolitical pull of instability from outside the CIS — in particular, the civil war in Afghanistan, which has spilled over into Central Asia. Russia has not intervened coercively in the Tajik conflict, but has acted in support of a government with which it has treaty obligations. Russia has sought to apply a supportive strategy of armed suasion designed to defend the border zone, support the Tajik government and persuade both the government and the opposition to resolve the conflict peacefully. The application of a supportive strategy has given rise to difficulty in balancing political and military ‘peacekeeping’ instruments. This dilemma stems from the tension in Russian policy between a commitment to the defence of the border and the desire to find political conflict resolution. The UN has defined the situation in Tajikistan as a civil war between a government elected undemocratically and a coalition of opposition forces. The Russian government, on the other hand, has defined the situation so as to legally justify its support to a client. In this view, Russia’s involvement has reflected its duty to aid an allied state suffering under the onslaught from forces based in northern Afghanistan. At the same