Russian Strategic Thinking toward Central, South, and Southeast Asia

Abstract

Strategic thinking toward the Central Asian region undoubtedly occupies the minds of Russian leaders more so today than at any time over the past century. A large part of Central Asia had been under Russian—or Soviet—domination for close to 130 years. This changed almost overnight at the end of 1991. The collapse of the Soviet Union, and the subsequent emergence of the independent states in Central Asia, brought this heretofore-isolated region to the forefront of international diplomacy and global politics in the 1990s. The emergence of Central Asia as a geopolitical arena of competition has dramatically affected Russia, and strategic thinking among Russian leaders. Today nations such as China, India, Iran, Turkey, and the United States are vying for influence throughout Central Asia. Although somewhat politically eclipsed in the region compared to past decades, Russia still maintains deep connections in Central Asia and wields some influence over the five nations of the region.1 In 2004–05 the Russian government undertook serious efforts to reestablish its power and influence in the region. Moscow’s interest in South Asia also remains strong, although its position in the sub-continent is also considerably weakened compared to fifteen years ago. Southeast Asia still remains a distant region in the eyes of Russia’s leaders, and is accordingly given little attention.