Russian Rivers Streamflow Forecasting Using Hydrograph Extrapolation Method

Sergei Borsch,Vladimir Krovotyntsev,Ekaterina Ryseva,Valeria Koliy,Victoria Derugina,Natalia Semenova,Yuri Simonov,Andrei Khristoforov

doi:10.3390/hydrology9010001

Sergei Borsch, Vladimir Krovotyntsev + Show 6 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology9010001

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Abstract

This paper presents a method of hydrograph extrapolation, intended for simple and efficient streamflow forecasting with up to 10 days lead time. The forecast of discharges or water levels is expressed by a linear formula depending on their values on the date of the forecast release and the five previous days. Such forecast techniques were developed for more than 2700 stream gauging stations across Russia. Forecast verification has shown that this method can be successfully applied to large rivers with a smooth shape of hydrographs, while for small mountain catchments, the accuracy of the method tends to be lower. The method has been implemented into real-time continuous operations in the Hydrometcentre of Russia. In the territory of Russia, 18 regions have been identified with a single dependency of the maximum lead time of good forecasts on the area and average slope of the catchment surface for different catchments of each region; the possibilities of forecasting river streamflow by the method of hydrograph extrapolation are approximately estimated. The proposed method can be considered as a first approximation while solving the problem of forecasting river flow in conditions of a lack of meteorological information or when it is necessary to quickly develop a forecasting system for a large number of catchments.

Highlights

Academic Editor: Alain DezetterImproving hydrological forecast accuracy and increasing lead times as well as expanding the scope of forecast application is necessary for improving the efficiency of water resources management, and the safety of the population and infrastructure from the frequent floods caused by intense snowmelt, rain floods and ice jams in the territory of Russia.An important role here is given to continuous issuing of short- and medium-term flood forecasts with lead times of up to 5 and 10 days, respectively [1,2,3].There are a variety of models and methods applied in operational short and mediumterm streamflow forecasting in the present time [3]
For the stream gauging stations across Russia, the results of streamflow and water level forecast verification make it possible to assess the performance of the used method of hydrograph extrapolation and the automated system of forecast preparation and issuance
The data in this table show that with lead time ∆t = 1 day, satisfactory forecasts of water discharge can be obtained for 2069 gauging stations, satisfactory forecasts of water levels for 2775 stations; with lead time ∆t = 2 days, for 2015 and 2769 stations, respectively, etc

Summary

Introduction

There are a variety of models and methods applied in operational short and mediumterm streamflow forecasting in the present time [3]. These methods more or less take into account the peculiarity of runoff formation in the catchment area and the movement of water within the river network. They are implemented as physical–mathematical and conceptual models or as statistical dependencies of the predicted value on the hydrological and meteorological characteristics known by the date of the forecast [1,2,4,5,6,7]

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