Abstract
Subject Russia's 'tax manoeuvre' in the oil sector. Significance Legislation in force since January 1 will see a reduction in export duties on oil from 30% to 25% this year and down to zero by 2024. The Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) levied on hydrocarbons upstream will increase at the same pace over the period to replace budget revenues. Impacts International oil price volatility remains a key risk; MET and export tax rates are directly linked to the Urals price. Retail fuel prices are under additional upward pressure with January's rise from 18% to 20% in value-added tax. Belarus's oil imports for its refineries have been exempt from Russian excise duties, but higher MET will raise prices. Russia is already using the higher price to pressure Belarus.
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