Russian natural gas exports: An analysis of challenges and opportunities

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive, updated, and refined analysis of the challenges and opportunities for Russian natural gas exports based on recent statistical data, academic publications, and media sources. The paper addresses the lack of continuity in studies within the topic since the recent changes are not reflected well enough in the current peer-reviewed literature. In order to understand the perspectives regarding Russian natural gas export in global natural gas markets, we consequently examine the current layout of the global natural gas markets, and challenges and opportunities for Russian natural gas exports. The analysis shows that the U.S. natural gas market is closed for Russian exports. In the European market, Russia is experiencing difficulties in increasing its export shares, or even maintaining current levels, owing to various macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Asian markets such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea, are the most promising destinations for future Russian natural gas exports. Despite strong geopolitical challenges and high competition globally, Russia should seek maintaining current export levels in the European market, while implementing a win-win export strategy, and secure its future export shares on the Asian markets. The results of the study can be used for scenario and planning purposes, and be useful for policy makers and industry practitioners.