Russian Intervention in Syria: Exploring the Nexus between Regime Consolidation and Energy Transnationalisation

David Maher,Moritz Pieper

doi:10.1177/0032321720934637

Abstract

Interpretations of Russia’s military intervention in Syria overwhelmingly focus on Russia’s political motivations. An alternative view foregrounds Russia’s economic motivations, namely, the construction of a multi-billion-dollar gas pipeline traversing Iran, Iraq and Syria. This article examines the salience of Russia’s economic motivations and considers two related aspects: First, if Russian intervention aims to secure areas of strategic importance for the proposed pipeline. Second, if Russian intervention realises longer term political and commercial interests that include proposed future pipeline projects. The evidence suggests Russian military policies towards Syria are unlikely to be motivated primarily by the prospect of a proposed gas pipeline, but that regime consolidation is a more immediate policy goal. This article then posits that Russian intervention has a distinct ‘dual logic’ aimed at integrating the interests of key regional actors into a transnational energy network, while stabilising Russia’s regional dominance within this network.

Highlights

This article explores Russia’s motivations to militarily intervene in Syria
The following section will expand on the argument that Russian intervention – like that of the United States – is underpinned by a distinct dual logic that is underpinned by (1) a transnational logic aimed at securing the interests of states not aligned to the US-led liberal order but which (2) has Russia’s own national interests at its core
This article posits that, similar to what Stokes (2007) has argued regarding US intervention in Iraq, Russia exhibits a distinct dual logic that underpins its intervention in Syria, a logic that has a transnational aspect, while simultaneously placing Russia’s interests at the core of its intervention

Summary

Introduction

This article explores Russia’s motivations to militarily intervene in Syria. Hitherto, explanations have focussed on the political incentives for Russia’s support of the Syrian government, Russian attempts to consolidate the Syrian regime for reasons of regional stability and global power considerations. The potential impact of economic motivations has been largely overlooked in scholarly analyses. This article aims to contribute to the debate by investigating the salience of Russia’s economic motivations in Syria and unpacking how these motivations can interact with Russia’s political goals. By combining disaggregate-level data on Russian airstrikes with documentary evidence and conceptual arguments, we first aim to expand on the current literature by exploring if Russia has intervened to secure short-term economic gains, namely to secure a corridor for the construction of a particular pipeline. We argue that long-term economic explanations cannot be separated from political factors that have figured prominently in the majority of analyses of Russian intervention. To shed light on the nexus between political factors and long-term economic interests, we argue that regime consolidation can be linked to an economic logic and that a more nuanced understanding of the interplay between Russia’s political and long-term economic motivations provides insights into Russia’s key motivating factors leading to military intervention

Findings

Objectives

Conclusion