Russian grain production: too much of a good thing?

Abstract

Russian grain production has increased substantially in recent years, reaching a record harvest of 135 million tons post-cleaning during the 2017–2018 agricultural year. By 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture expects harvests to reach 150 million tons on a consistent basis. This research note analyses Russia’s ability to absorb harvests of this magnitude, examining domestic consumption, transportation, storage capacity and export capacity. Significant increases in domestic consumption are not expected. Efforts are underway to expand storage and export capacity, but in the short term the grain infrastructural system is not adequate to handle successively large harvests. The consequences of oversupply could be falling domestic prices and financial difficulties for grain producers and traders.