Russian Economy in 2020–2022: Transition to a New Development Model

Abstract

The article presents the study results on the changes in the Russian economy related to effects of the specific circumstances of 2020–2022. The authors support the conclusion about the ongoing shift in the economic development model and make several proposals for domestic economic policy. The authors note that the strong negative influence of external factors can, under certain conditions (on the principle of «challenge-and-response» or «shock-and-reaction»), create momentum towards the accelerated structural transformation of the economy and transition to a new national economic cycle adapted to current trends in scientific and technological development.The paper analyses indicators of dynamics and structural changes in the final use of gross domestic product (GDP), in production, and in investment activity. The article describes the differences in the development trends for three major sectors of the economy in which its industries were incorporated: the raw materials and processing sector, the infrastructure sector, and the innovation sector, and also for the aggregate «other industries» (tabular material contains detailed analytical data on enlarged categories).The article presents the results of GDP dynamics factor analysis based on two approaches – using the intersectoral model and the GDP dynamics macroeconomic function. Based on the first approach, the authors obtained the overall estimates of the impact of changes in export volumes and domestic final demand on GDP in 2022, as well as the decrease in the import intensity of production and other estimates. Based on the second approach, the authors obtained the estimate of the potential GDP rate, its gap with the actual rate, and the influence of the main factors on economic dynamics. The features of the new development model (transition to development based mainly on internal sources of funds, resources, etc.) are indicated. The paper outlines authors' views on the conditions that can meet the challenges of developing the country as part of the new development model. The issues of making the investment forecasts and providing investment process with the financial resources are considered. According to the authors, further development of the systematic approach to managerial decision-making and transition to ensuring better coherence between vital economic development directions makes it possible to achieve economic and social objectives more effectively.