Abstract
This paper investigates the predictability of cyclical turning points in Russia. For years, anyone interested in Russia had access to a full set of common tools for business cycle analysis: several versions of Composite Leading Index, a Purchasing Managers' Index, Enterprise and Consumer Sentiment Indexes, etc. However, the 2008-2009 world financial crisis spread throughout Russia quite unexpectedly for most politicians, businessmen and experts alike. Is it possible that none of existing indexes were able to say anything about the approaching decline? In reality this is not the case. So then why did a more or less definite forecast provided by some indexes have no consequences for common economic sentiments in Russia? This paper gives some answers for this question.
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