Russia–US–China: Motives and Risks of Russian–Chinese Military Rapprochement

Abstract

A military alliance between China and Russia does not currently appear to be justified in terms of the broadly understood security interests of the Russian Federation. Such an alliance would significantly reformat the structure of world multipolarity, causing significant radicalization and increased tensions in it. This alliance would probably exacerbate the security problem of the Russian Federation rather than contribute to its solution. At the same time, given other foreign policy conditions, Russia, by its own motivations, and China by its own, can return to the idea of creating a military alliance if they consider it a necessary and urgent means of ensuring their security in the confrontation with the United States. The US withdrawal from the arms control treaties, in particular from START III, means the consolidation of this state’s orientation towards sole dominance in strategic arms. This development of events overrides most of the arguments against an alliance between Russia and China. The scale and forms of the current military cooperation between the Russian Federation and China are adequate in the existing foreign policy conditions of Russia. However, it should not overstep the “red line” yet. Such a boundary should be mutual clear guarantees of the participation of both sides in repelling an external threat.