Russia’s Ukraine Intervention and Changes to American Perceptions of the Russian Threat: Executive Branch Testimony to the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, 2008–2016

Abstract

The Russian Federation’s intervention in Ukraine in the spring of 2014 triggered a significant shift in the US government’s perception of that country. Before that event, statements by US officials depicted Russia as a non-threatening potential partner with compatible interests and common security concerns. After the Ukraine intervention, officials characterized Russia as a significant threat to the United States, its allies, and the European regional order. This article explains why the intervention precipitated such a profound change in American threat perceptions—that is, it links the action (Russia’s intervention in Ukraine) to the reaction (the US change in threat assessments). Through a detailed examination of executive branch testimony to the House and Senate Armed Services Committees from January 2008 to February 2016, this article demonstrates that Russia’s intervention in Ukraine was seen by the United States as an unacceptable breach of international law and norms, including the principles of state sovereignty, the sanctity of borders, and territorial integrity. From the American perspective, Russia’s violation of these fundamental rules necessitated a questioning of prevailing American assumptions about Russia. Furthermore, the potential for future aggression by Russia had to be taken seriously. It was this factor of Russia as a “rule breaker” that directly led the United States to reassess the threat posed to it by Russia, rather than alternative explanations such as the application of new Russian military tactics, an increase in Russian military capabilities, politics surrounding Russian national identity or system of government, or Ukraine’s geopolitical value to the United States.