Russia's Restive Future

Abstract

When Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced his intention to return to the Kremlin for a third presidential term, he marked a significant milestone in the country's political development. More than just another assumed victory for Putin's party of power, his putative return to the presidency is without precedent in post-Communist Russia and signals a clear venture into uncharted territory. Even if Putin's triumph at the ballot box is all but certain, it is far from clear whether his next administration will be able to address the mounting pressures that weigh heavily on the Russian state. From the country's spiralling demographic crisis to its over-reliance on mineral exports and long-delayed reforms to the judiciary and political institutions, the risk of long-term stagnation and state decline is greater today than when Putin first took office more than 10 years ago. Indeed, the choices made during Putin's next term could have far-reaching consequences, not just for Russia's relationship with the US and the EU, but for his country's aspirations to reassert itself as a global power.