Russia’s gas challenge: the consequences for China, Central Asia, Europe and the USA

Abstract

Russia is posing a series of challenges to gas consumers and gas producers alike. But the effectiveness of these challenges remains a matter of considerable debate. Overall, prospective Russian actions and policies have profound implications for the development of the European gas market in general, and thus for potential US LNG exports to Europe. Moreover, underlying all this is the most worrisome question of all: do Russia’s policies and actions enable gas consumers—and indeed, some Central Asian gas producers—to regard Russia as a reliable energy partner? This article therefore addresses: Prospects for the full implementation of the Russia–China gas accords; Prospects for Turkmen gas supply to both Russia and China; Prospects for the development of both Gazprom’s Turkish Stream project and the EU-backed Southern Gas Corridor; Prospects for US LNG in Europe; The potential challenge that a change in Russian gas export policies could pose to European gas prices. The article also seeks to answer the question as to whether Russia can be considered a reliable partner, particularly in connection with long-term deliveries to Europe.