Russia’s expanding adaptation agenda and its limitations

Abstract

ABSTRACT Russian science has long warned of adverse climate impacts (also noting some positive effects), but state policies have been lacking. By analysing key policy documents over the last 15 years, this study identifies and explains the development of an adaptation policy. Most recently, a bureaucratic process set in motion by Russia’s ratification of the Paris Agreement produced a set of policy documents addressing adaptation to negative climate impacts. These documents employed a bureaucratic-administrative approach, and the effectiveness of expected measures can be questioned. From 2020, a deeper reassessment of climate challenges has evolved, triggered by radical climate changes observed in the Russian Arctic, but also by developments in international climate policies and the energy transition. Economic adaptation to these trends has come to the forefront, raising questions of the need for structural change in the Russian economy. Opposition to reform remains strong, but the scope for discussion of possible pathways has widened considerably. Further development of low-carbon policies in Russia are contingent on international cooperation and integration of Russia in the world economy. The isolation of Russia, following the invasion of Ukraine, will make it difficult to influence Russian climate policies. Key policy insights Unlike the West, Russian climate policy has focused on adaptation, rather than mitigation. But policies have been weak, and adaptation not mainstreamed. Detailed recommendations for adaptation to climate change impacts adopted in 2021 signalled higher political attention, but framed adaptation largely as a technical task. Since 2020, a broader climate change and adaptation discourse entered Russian politics where adaptation to international climate policies and the energy transition is at the centre. Debate on Russia’s role in the changing energy market had started, but the invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing international isolation of Russia is likely to reduce Russia’s capacity and incentives to carry out low-carbon policies. Western countries will have to consider how they can provide climate policy incentives to Russia in the new international situation, as Russia will remain essential for the success of the climate regime. Science diplomacy may become important.