Russia’s Declining Satellite Reconnaissance Capabilities and Its Implications for Security and International Stability

Abstract

Satellite-based intelligence has played a crucial role in national security and international stability. This article explores the persistent decline in Russia’s satellite reconnaissance capabilities since the Cold War’s end, challenging hopes for recovery and highlighting systemic issues. It delves into the impact on Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, where the absence of satellites contributes to indiscriminate shelling and higher military casualties. Furthermore, it examines the repercussions on nuclear arms control and the peaceful use of space, critical for global stability. As Russia struggles with reconnaissance gaps, its pursuit of antisatellite weapons poses a threat to the principle of space for peace. This analysis aims to deepen insights into the intelligence decline during the Russia–Ukraine conflict and its potential ramifications for international stability.