Russia in the Context of the Global Crisis

Abstract

The article examines the features of the current situation in the world and the existing threats to Russia in its confrontation with the collective West. It is shown that the current global crisis is caused by the change of historical epochs and the transformation of the world system into a qualitatively new state. The old patterns stop working, it’s time to design the future. In these conditions, Russia has a chance to propose its own world order project and become one of the leaders in the new historical reality. But this requires a purposeful and wise policy.Aim. The aim of this article is to analyze the current situation in the world and substantiate Russia’s policy in the current conditions.Tasks. During the research, the following tasks were solved: modeling and forecasting world dynamics in the 21st century, identifying global trends, analyzing the features of the current crisis situation; analysis of the modern confrontation between the collective West and Russia; analysis of the tasks that Russia faces in the short, medium and long term, and justification of ways to solve them.Methods. The methodology for solving these problems is based on the identification of patterns of historical development using modern methods of modeling and forecasting world dynamics, developed at Lomonosov Moscow State University under the guidance of Academician V. A. Sadovnichy.Results. The results of mathematical modeling have shown that humanity is currently moving to a fundamentally new phase of historical development, when the old economic and social technologies (liberal capitalism, classical socialism) no longer work. There is a transition of human society into a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. In these conditions, we are not talking about forecasting, but about designing the future in new historical conditions. The struggle of world projects begins. Russia’s strategy should be formed on the basis of understanding the specifics of the current situation.Conclusions. The current global crisis creates serious threats to Russia’s development, exacerbates the pressure on it from the collective West. However, at the same time, new opportunities are opening up for Russia: it gets a chance to propose its own world order project and become one of the leaders in the new historical reality. To realize this chance, a purposeful and wise policy is needed. The article suggests a number of measures to implement this policy.