Russia–China–Pakistan Engagement in the Changing Global Context: Scrutinizing the Realist Logic of a Trilateral ‘Axis’

Abstract

Russia’s robust engagement with China coupled with the recalibration of its ties with Pakistan, coming at the backdrop of Russia’s increasing estrangement with the West, Pakistan’s dissatisfaction with the USA over the suspension of security assistance, and India’s closeness toward the latter are leading scholars and political analysts to remark that Russia, China, and Pakistan are gradually inching toward the formalization of an ‘axis’ or a strategic ‘counter alliance’ in a bid to push for a greater bipolarity in world affairs. Though there are not enough signs to prove that Russia–China–Pakistan ‘axis’ is a reality, what is of significance is the emergence of converging interests among these three states that is gradually leading toward deeper engagements among them. It is in this broader context that the article will endeavor to analyze the factors propelling such a development and seek to discern the possible implications it may have on the time-tested ties between Russia and India. The study will move beyond the realist concepts of a power-centric and relative-gain approach that presents this trilateral engagement as a ‘counter alliance’ to the USA and India’s supremacy in the region; instead the article argues that the factors as presented in the realist narratives are inadequate to explain the nature of Russia–China–Pakistan engagement in the light of (a) Russia’s invested relationship with India that is steeped in historical nostalgia which makes it highly unlikely for Russia to turn against the latter; (b) second, Russia’s tactical relationship with Pakistan inevitably weakens one leg of the so-called axis; (c) third, Russia’s robust partnership with China invalidates the realist argument that Russia retains an interest in countering China’s growing status as a countervailing power in the region; (d) fourth, the ‘other’ ( i.e., the USA and India) vis-à-vis which the realists attempt to posit the Russia–China–Pakistan ‘axis’ as a counter strategic alliance is itself noninstitutionalized and fraught with many challenges.