Russia at War: Theories of Foreign Policy in Light of Chechnya and Georgia

Abstract

This paper considers the recent Russian conflicts in Chechnya and Georgia under the umbrella of four theories of Russian foreign policy. The historical continuity theory sees Imperial Russia, the Soviet Union, and the modern Russian Federation as primordially aggressive and imperialist, and interprets recent aggressive moves in that light. The imposed insecurity theory holds that Russian stability depends on the instability of its neighbors in its perceived sphere of influence. The diversionary tensions theory sees foreign conflict as a means of solidifying domestic opinion behind the government's policy and against the corrosive influences of the West. The economic enabling theory sees economic prosperity as a prerequisite to a restoration of Russian prominence on the world stage. This paper considers the recent conflict between Russia and Georgia over the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as two-decade-long conflict in the Chechnya region. In studying a domestic conflict (Chechnya) as well as the more recent international incident, the paper shows the overlap between Russian foreign and domestic policy, finding distinctive policy patterns in post-Soviet Russian policy on both levels.