Russia and the Western Balkans from geopolitical, demographic and economic perspective

Abstract

The Western Balkans is a language formation of bureaucrats from the European Union, which is made up of the former Yugoslavian region, without Slovenia, but with Albany. Political influence of Russia on the Western Balkans resides mostly on three pillars. The most important one is the privileged position it has as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The second pillar is a historical, cultural and political connection of Russia with the people and nations in the Southeast Europe, who have Orthodox tradition. The third pillar Russia relies on in the Western Balkans is its growing economic significance for the countries in the region. Russia is the leading provider of energy in the region and is more present as an investor and trade partner. The growth of economic importance of Russia in the Southeast Europe creates a new space for it to realize its political interests in the region. After financial appearance of Russia in times of high-priced raw materials in international trade, Russia has not only become a demanded trade partner in the energetics of Southeast Europe, but in the meantime many Russian companies have begun to invest in industry, tourism, banking and other economy areas in the region. Modern trends of population dynamics of Russia and Western Balkan countries, especially Serbia, show that, from the European aspect, this region is a specific one. On the one hand, the Western Balkans is becoming more hegemonic, and at the same time in many domains its differentiation is increasing in relation to most European countries. On the other hand, with the break-up of the Soviet Union, a lot of Russian people remained outside the borders of Russia. During the last decades the level of birthrate has dropped to the level of highly developed European countries, while the level of death rate has increased, and average human lifespan has decreased. Current political and social-economic opportunities show that it is difficult to expect in the medium term, especially long term, a noticeable improvement in demographic situation, both in the Western Balkans and in Russia, although Russia has initiated at the beginning of the 21st century an active demographic politics, which along with the increase of life and social standard gives results. The Western Balkans in the next few decades will be mainly marked with population decrease and its intensive aging. Although the Western Balkan and Russian demographic future seem pretty dismal, we think that speedy economic transitions, taking over long-term sector politics, as well as a successful implementation of measures for enticing birth, could slow down unfavorable trends, which would create conditions for gradual demographic, and any other recovery in the region.