Abstract
[full article, abstract in English; abstract in Lithuanian]
 Lithuania has been a target of Russia’s soft power efforts for the past two decades. The aim of this article is to analyse Russia’s soft power influence possibilities in Lithuania. First, it analyzes how soft power is interpreted in Russia compared to the Western conception. Then, Russia’s soft power instruments and their core goals are reviewed, not all of which fall under the category of “soft power instruments” according to the Western understanding. The article proceeds with demographic changes in Lithuania and trends of consumption of Russian culture and information in Lithuania. The main argument is that Russia is not aiming to apply soft power to the general Lithuanian society but to particular groups within the population (Russophone minorities and residents with sentiments for the Soviet Union). It can be assumed that demographic trends and Russia’s aggressive actions will increasingly limit its soft power capabilities. However, the greatest setback to Russia’s soft power in Lithuania is arguably caused by its continuing reliance on hard power when it comes to countries of the post-Soviet space.
Highlights
Since Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in 2014, Lithuania’s focus has been shifting toward Russia’s soft power instruments and discussions of their impact
The methodology of this article is based on an analysis of soft power instruments identified by Russian scholars, who suggested to apply these instruments in the ex-Soviet space; only those instruments that could be conceptually justified from the position of Nye’s approach are included in the analysis, while aggressive and disruptive elements, despite the growing focus on them in the Western political and analytical communities, are dismissed
The causes behind the current workings of Russia’s soft power and its prospects in Lithuania are derived from comparing the official historical narratives of the two countries and analyzing the sociodemographic data; so, in methodological terms, descriptive statistics are complemented by interpretation
Summary
Since Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in 2014, Lithuania’s focus has been shifting toward Russia’s soft power instruments and discussions of their impact. The transformed meaning of soft power might further lead to an increasing distortion of soft power instruments and practices, eroding the essence of soft power, replacing it with actions that contradict the phenomenon at its core Despite these changes, it is worth analyzing how traditional instruments of soft power are being applied by Russia in Lithuania and how efficient they are in swaying the Lithuanian society in favor of Russia’s positions. The methodology of this article is based on an analysis of soft power instruments identified by Russian scholars, who suggested to apply these instruments in the ex-Soviet space (including Lithuania); only those instruments that could be conceptually justified from the position of Nye’s approach are included in the analysis, while aggressive and disruptive elements, despite the growing focus on them in the Western political and analytical communities, are dismissed. The causes behind the current workings (or failures) of Russia’s soft power and its prospects in Lithuania are derived from comparing the official historical narratives of the two countries and analyzing the sociodemographic data; so, in methodological terms, descriptive statistics are complemented by interpretation
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