Rural-Urban Differences in the Unemployment-Crime Relationship: The Case of Pennsylvania

Abstract

This study analyzes the unemployment-crime (U-C) relationship in urban and rural Pennsylvania counties using a balanced panel data set over the period from 1990 to 2009. A two-way fixed effects model is estimated to account for unobserved county-specific and time-specific heterogeneity. The criminal opportunity and criminal motivation effects of unemployment on crime advanced by Cantor and Land are tested. The results suggest that there are rural-urban differences in the impacts of the covariates. Specifically, both statistically significant criminal opportunity and criminal motivation effects are present in urban counties. In contrast, rural counties fail to conform to U-C predictions. Oaxaca decomposition reveals that the unexplained portion of the rural-urban difference in the crime rate is 12%. The results provide support for addressing labor market conditions to complement traditional crime-fighting measures in urban settings.