Abstract
Migration is often seen as an adaptive human response to adverse socio-environmental conditions, such as water scarcity. A rigorous assessment of the causes of migration, however, requires reliable information on the migration in question and related variables, such as, unemployment, which is often missing. This study explores the causes of one such type of migration, from rural to urban areas, in the Jiangsu province of China. A migration model is developed to fill a gap in the understanding of how rural to urban migration responds to variations in inputs to agricultural production including water availability and labor and how rural population forms expectations of better livelihood in urban areas. Rural to urban migration is estimated at provincial scale for period 1985–2013 and is found to be significantly linked with rural unemployment. Further, migration reacts to a change in rural unemployment after 2–4 years with 1% increase in rural unemployment, on average, leading to migration of 16,000 additional people. This implies that rural population takes a couple of years to internalize a shock in employment opportunities before migrating to cities. The analysis finds neither any evidence of migrants being pulled by better income prospects to urban areas nor being pushed out of rural areas by water scarcity. Corroborated by rural–urban migration in China migration survey data for 2008 and 2009, this means that local governments have 2–4 years of lead time after an unemployment shock, not necessarily linked to water scarcity, in rural areas to prepare for the migration wave in urban areas. This original analysis of migration over a 30-year period and finding its clear link with unemployment, and not with better income in urban areas or poor rainfall, thus provides conclusive evidence in support of policy interventions that focus on generating employment opportunities in rural areas to reduce migration flow to urban areas.
Highlights
Better understanding of linkages between water scarcity and migration is needed in the debate of whether migration is an adaptive strategy or a nonbeneficial struggle of humans under climate variability and change (Lilleør and Van den Broeck, 2011; Tacoli, 2009; Yan and Shi, 2017)
This paper investigates rural–urban migration in one such case, and inquires whether it is driven by water availability, rural unemployment, or urban employment at higher wages
The labor demands in rural agricultural and nonagricultural sectors were estimated based on Cobb–Douglas production functions
Summary
Better understanding of linkages between water scarcity and migration is needed in the debate of whether migration is an adaptive strategy or a nonbeneficial struggle of humans under climate variability and change (Lilleør and Van den Broeck, 2011; Tacoli, 2009; Yan and Shi, 2017). Urbanization patterns in developing countries, such as rural–urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa, appear to have been influenced by climate variability (Barrios et al, 2006; McLeman and Hunter, 2010). Links between employment opportunities and rural–urban migration at national scale have been reported in countries such as China, Senegal, Bangladesh and India (Goldsmith et al, 2004; Zhang and Shunfeng, 2003; Zhao, 1999; Munshi and Rosenzweig, 2016). Both skilled and nonskilled labor tend to migrate from interior regions of China to its coast. The migration of skilled labor appears to be less influenced by the regional unemployment rate and concentration of foreign investment and more by regional wage disparity (Liu and Shen, 2017). Thomas (1973) even found linkages between out-migration and economic growth of Britain with cross-Atlantic economies
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
