Rural typology dynamics and drivers in peripheral areas: A case of Northeast China

Abstract

Socioeconomic developments in rural areas are characterized by heterogeneity and diversity rather than evolving along 'parallel linear paths'. To date, our understanding of rural heterogeneity and evolution remains limited, especially in institutionally transitional countries. Eastern Europe and Northeast China have both experienced economic recessions, industrial restructuring and urban shrinkage over the past decades and have become rust, peripheral and even stigmatized areas. However, the backdrop of rural evolution in Northeast China is different from that of Eastern Europe, since its institutional transition has been gradual rather than a 'shock therapy'. This paper proposes a conceptual framework for rural typology and uses cluster analysis and random forest to explore the rural typological evolution and drivers in Northeast China from 2000 to 2017. The results show that the modernizing grain agriculture leading type currently occupies the main position in Northeast China, while the urbanizing type and industry diversification type only account for 18.6 %. Regarding rural typological dynamics from 2000 to 2017, the modernizing grain agriculture leading type expanded and intensified in more peripheral areas with abundant arable land resources or high potential for arable land reclamation, driven by increasing national grain demand, widening regional economic disparities and division of labor, and agricultural policies. Meanwhile, the transformation mode from the modernizing grain agriculture leading type to the industry diversification type (5.81 %) developed in areas with relatively developed economies, proximity to markets, and dense populations. Finally, we discuss the similarities and differences in rural development between Northeast China and Eastern Europe and propose related policy implications for rural development.