Rural livelihood risk to hydro-meteorological extreme events: Empirical evidence from Indian Sundarban applying IPCC-AR5 and DEMATEL methodology

Abstract

The Sundarbans, located at the southern end of West Bengal (India), is a prominent climatic hotspot. For a long time, the delta has been facing major climatic and other socio-ecological adversities. The purpose of this study is to look at how vulnerable rural livelihoods are to climate-related catastrophic events in our study area. Many authors have tried to investigate micro-level livelihood vulnerability and climate risk among 15 villages of Sundarban using hazard, exposure, sensitivity and coping capacity, addressing IPCC-AR5 (2014) framework. In the quantitative phase, DEMATEL technique has been used. The overall risks calculated from the components of IPCC-AR5, show that households in Kakdwip Subdivision that rely on nature, are extremely vulnerable to climate change, with an index of 0.601 (in island villages) compared to 0.217 in inland villages. According to the IPCC-AR5 risk assessment, farming and fishing households in coastal communities were also more vulnerable, with an index of 0.427, compared to those in riverine areas, with an index of 0.345. The violin plot clearly indicates which quartile a household belongs to, as well as the risk level among residents in different geographic places. DEMATEL analysis has been used to assist policymakers in understanding climate-resilient pathways. Following the DEMATEL technique to the IPCC AR5 components, additional indicators of the specific components have been considered in order to determine the nature of causal influences between them. The paper reveals that despite the fact that climate change-related uncertainties are increasing, local people are accustomed to living with and managing with them.