Rural Electricity Demand Forecast Based on DE-GWO-SVR

Abstract

Rural electricity consumption is an important indicator of the development trend of rural energy. Based on the correlation analysis, rural economic development level, agriculturalization level, de-urbanization level, population size, rural residents’ consumption level, industrial structure, electricity price, and electricity consumption base are the key influencing factors of rural electricity demand. In this thesis, a differential evolution-gray wolf optimization-support vector regression rural electricity demand forecasting model is developed. The historical data of rural electricity demand in Henan Province are selected for comparative analysis to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the combined optimization model and forecast the rural electricity demand in Henan Province during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.