Rural depopulation in Kazakhstan: mechanisms of regulation

Abstract

The aim is to analyze depopulation trends in rural regions of Kazakhstan, including Kostanay region, and to propose mechanisms for their optimization. Methods - comparative analysis and dynamic methods were used to identify the main causes and annual decline in population in rural areas. Empirical methods were used to determine the factors of rural population reduction, as well as the formation of a system of complex regulation of demographic and social problems. The assessment of socio-economic indicators of the oblast was carried out on the basis of the evaluation approach. Results - the authors note that despite a number of existing documents on the development of rural areas of the country, since 2009 depopulation of the rural population of the country persists. In 2024 compared to 2008 the quantitative composition decreased by 9.1%. It is most characteristic for Kostanay region. In order to more deeply study the depopulation orientation in this region a comparative analysis of social parameters of 4 densely populated and 4 least densely populated areas, including data for the period from 2010 to 2023 was carried out. Conclusions - labor market indicators of Kazakhstan and Kostanay region are somewhat lower compared to urban indicators. In 2023, the labor force participation rate was observed to be higher in rural areas compared to urban areas, but the employment rate was significantly lower. Self-employed workers are 16% more in rural areas and 9% more in the oblast. The low size of income and its stable sources led to the outflow of economically active groups from villages to large cities. In order to comprehensively regulate these processes in rural areas, it is advisable to create an effective mechanism of social responsibility of business (SRB), which will reduce budget expenditures of the state.