Ruptures in perceived solution spaces for adaptation to flood risk: Heuristic insights from Mumbai and general lessons

Abstract

Adaptation to increasing impacts of climate change will require societies to design portfolios of risk management solutions by selecting from an array of available adaptation options. A major step on the way towards a strong social contract for adaptation is understanding how different actors view different adaptation options. Here we adopt an actor-oriented multi-dimensional framework to understand how different actors evaluate their perceived adaptation solution space. The aim is to understand who identifies which adaptation options and how they are assessed. We build on the feasibility assessment used in IPCC’s sixth assessment report and explore the framework by applying it to the solution space for flood risk in Mumbai. We draw on empirical data collected through key informant interviews with state, civil society and academic actors. Our findings show that, overall, actors see most need for adaptation measures in relation to institutional changes, e.g. in relation to planning procedures and a shift in risk management paradigms. While actors show consensus on the importance of green infrastructure, we find stark differences in their perception of grey infrastructure measures. In terms of the factors perceived to enable or constrain adaptation, actors agree on the pivotal role of institutional aspects as even more important than financial or technical factors. This study makes an empirical and analytical contribution to advance feasibility assessments by including actor perceptions and their evaluation of options in real world settings.