Abstract
The four major earthquakes that have occurred in the Himalayan region since 1897 seem to have ruptured as little as about 15% or 20% to perhaps as much as 45% of the thrust zone separating the underthrusting Indian Shield and the overthrusting Himalayan crystalline nappes. Because of various difficulties in estimating the rupture zones for each of these earthquakes, we cannot place a tight constraint on the fraction of the Himalayan belt for which the risk of an imminent great earthquake is high. If a slip between the Indian Shield and the Himalayan crystalline nappes occurs largely by slip associated with major earthquakes, then recurrence intervals of such earthquakes are likely to be between 200 and 500 years, with a likely value of 300 years.
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