Abstract
Renewable energy sources, due to their direct (e.g., wind turbines) or indirect (e.g., hydropower, with precipitation being the generator of runoff) dependence on climatic variables, are foreseen to be affected by climate change. In this research, two run-of-river small hydropower plants (SHPPs) located at different water districts in Greece are being calibrated and validated, in order to be simulated in terms of future power production under climate change conditions. In doing so, future river discharges derived by the forcing of a hydrology model, by three Regional Climate Models under two Representative Concentration Pathways, are used as inputs for the simulation of the SHPPs. The research concludes, by comparing the outputs of short-term (2031–2060) and long-term (2071–2100) future periods to a reference period (1971–2000), that in the case of a significant projected decrease in river discharges (~25–30%), a relevant important decrease in the simulated future power generation is foreseen (~20–25%). On the other hand, in the decline projections of smaller discharges (up to ~15%) the generated energy depends on the intermonthly variations of the river runoff, establishing that runoff decreases in the wet months of the year have much lower impact on the produced energy than those occurring in the dry months. The latter is attributed to the non-existence of reservoirs that control the operation of run-of-river SHPPs; nevertheless, these types of hydropower plants can partially remediate the energy losses, since they are taking advantage of low flows for hydropower production. Hence, run-of-river SHPPs are designated as important hydro-resilience assets against the projected surface water availability decrease due to climate change.
Highlights
Hydropower is the most mature renewable energy source (RES), as it was operationally commissioned at the beginning of the 20th century [1]; it has the biggest penetration percentages in the energetic grid in comparison to other renewable energy sources
small hydropower plants (SHPPs) were calibrated and validated against measured produced power, with gauged discharges upstream of the plants to be used as input data while the technical characteristics of the plants and their operational schedule were obtained by the SHPPs’ management authorities
The calibration and validation of both SHPPs were conducted for the periods
Summary
Hydropower is the most mature renewable energy source (RES), as it was operationally commissioned at the beginning of the 20th century [1]; it has the biggest penetration percentages in the energetic grid in comparison to other renewable energy sources. In the year 2020, and on a global scale, hydropower represented the highest share among all renewables in electricity generation; i.e., it accounted for 57.72% among renewable energy sources (4.034 TWh out of 6989 TWh of all RES) [2] and for more than 16.0% of the world’s net electricity production [3]. On the European Union (EU) scale and according to data from 2019 [4], about one third, i.e., 30.2%, of the 2778 TWh of generated electricity came from RES, in comparison to 18.3% of the year 2009, with the highest shares of 13.0%, 12.2%, and 4.5% (out of 30.2%) to be attributed to wind, hydropower, and solar sources, respectively. The current energy generation bloom from renewables in EU is mainly connected to solar and wind technologies, since solar power grew from
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