Rules of origin and uncertain compliance cost

Abstract

This study considers the role of the cost uncertainty associated with meeting the rules of origin (ROO) in a free trade area/agreement (FTA). While the literature tends to overlook the cost uncertainties of ROO compliers, we show that the uncertain production costs resulting from meeting the ROO yield the coexistence of compliers and non-compliers in symmetric oligopoly firms. We also show that the regime in which compliers and non-compliers coexist is not the best one for an FTA importer, while it may be the best one for world welfare. We also discuss the case that uncertain production costs are firm-specific.