RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Turkey in the Period 2004–2015

Carolina Filizzola,Valerio Tramutoli,Angelo Corrado,Nicola Pergola,Nicola Genzano,Roberto Colonna,Mariano Lisi

doi:10.3390/rs14020381

Abstract

The paper provides, for the first time, a long-term (>10 years) analysis of anomalous transients in Earth’s emitted radiation over Turkey and neighbouring regions. The RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) approach is used to identify Significant Sequences of Thermal Anomalies (SSTAs) over about 12 years (May 2004 to October 2015) of night-time MSG-SEVIRI satellite images. The correlation analysis is performed with earthquakes with M ≥ 4, which occurred in the investigated period/region within a pre-defined space-time volume around SSTA occurrences. It confirms, also for Turkey, the possibility to qualify SSTAs among the candidate parameters of a multi-parametric system for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH). After analysing about 4000 images (about 400 million of single satellite records), just 155 SSTAs (about 4 every 100 images) were isolated; 115 (74% out of the total) resulted in earthquake-related (false-positive rate 26%). Results of the error diagram confirms a non-casual correlation between RST-based SSTAs and earthquake occurrences, with probability gain values up to 2.2 in comparison with the random guess. The analysis, separately performed on Turkish areas characterized by different faults and earthquakes densities, demonstrates the SSTA correlation with a dynamic seismicity more than with static tectonic settings.

Highlights

The optimism following the successful prediction of the large Chinese Haicheng earthquake (4 February 1975, M = 7.3) made the scientific community confident in achieving ‘earthquake prediction’ within about a decade
2015, we identified 155 Sequences of Thermal Anomalies (SSTAs) in the whole time series
We applied empirical rules based on previous studies and physical models (e.g., [20]) proposed to explain TA appearances before and after large earthquakes

Summary

Introduction

The evacuation of the citizens living in that densely populated area was ordered after hundreds of foreshocks, which had been registering for three days before the mainshock, and other geophysical precursors This first success was followed by a series of failures and missed events [1], such as the strong earthquake that occurred 18 months later at about 450 km from Haicheng (M7.8 Tangshan), as well as other devastating seismic events all around the world (e.g., Northridge, 1994; Kobe, 1995; Wenchuan, 2008). These unsuccessful situations caused the progressive damping of the initial enthusiasm.

Methods

Results

Conclusion