Route travel time estimation using low-frequency floating car data

Abstract

The paper develops a non-parametric method for route travel time estimation using low-frequency floating car data (FCD). While most previous work has focused on link travel time estimation, the method uses FCD observations directly for estimating the travel time distribution on a defined route. A list of potential biases associated with FCD is presented and discussed. For each source of bias, a correction method for the observations is proposed. The estimation method is implemented using FCD data from taxis in Stockholm, Sweden. Estimates are compared to observed travel times for two routes equipped with automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) cameras. The mean travel time estimates incorporating all bias corrections perform equally well or better than the link-based approach in terms of RMSE, and estimated percentiles show a good match to ANPR.