Abstract
Translocations—the movement of species from one place to another—are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires. The recent Australian mega-fires burnt almost 40% of the habitat of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata), a threatened species whose distribution is already restricted, primarily due to predation by invasive species. This chronic threat of over-predation, coupled with the possible extinction of the genetically distinct southern population (approx. 40 individuals in the wild), makes this species a candidate for a conservation translocation. Here, we use species distribution models to identify translocation sites for the brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Our models exhibited high predictive accuracy, and show that terrain roughness, a surrogate for predator refugia, is the most important variable. Tasmania, which currently has no rock-wallabies, showed high suitability and is fox-free, making it a promising candidate site. We outline our argument for the trial translocation of rock-wallaby to Maria Island, located off Tasmania's eastern coast. This research offers a transparent assessment of the translocation potential of a threatened species, which can be adapted to other taxa and systems.
Highlights
Translocations—the movement of species from one place to another—are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires
Maxent models were used for fitting the species distribution models (SDMs), because they are designed for presenceonly data [34], have a proven predictive performance [35], and are recommended when the goal of the study is not model transfer [36,37]
Our projections of the distribution of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby across the SE of Australia illustrate the limited availability of unoccupied areas with high suitability, implying that relatively few potential translocation sites exist
Summary
Translocations—the movement of species from one place to another—are likely to become more common as conservation attempts to protect small isolated populations from threats posed by extreme events such as bushfires. The recent Australian mega-fires burnt almost 40% of the habitat of the brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale pencillata), a threatened species whose distribution is already restricted, primarily due to predation by invasive species. This chronic threat of overpredation, coupled with the possible extinction of the genetically distinct southern population When constraining the projections to current climate conditions but geographically different areas, correlative SDMs can perform as well as process-explicit or mechanistic models [13,15,16] This makes them a useful ‘first filter’ for identifying potential translocation sites for threatened species needing immediate translocation [17,18]. It is estimated that half a million animals were killed in NSW during 30 years at the beginning of the twentieth century [28]
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