Rotation Forcing of Tectonics and Climate

Abstract

Contrary to predictions of the tidal torque model, length of day (LOD) decreases over a series of fluctuations since 1960s at least. The so far deepest LOD depression of 1997 – 2010 corresponds to the most prominent rises of total seismic activity and global mean temperatures. A conspicuously flat interval of the LOD curve uniformly at or slightly below –0.1 ms level in 2001 – 2005 roughly coincides with the similarly flattened high plateaus of total seismicity (2002 – 2008) and temperature anomalies (2002 – 2007), indicating causal relationships. Pearson correlation coefficients about –0.5 (p ≈ 0.03) for both LOD/earthquake frequencies and LOD/temperature anomalies are raised to –0.76 (p = 0.002) and –0.71 (p = 0.001) respectively on supposition of about two year lag between rotation forcing and the maximal geophysical effects. Non-random earthquake frequency distribution between the geoid rises and depressions is clear evidence of rotation forcing, with about 60% significant earthquakes over the highest equatorial Papua – Solomon Islands rise. The world largest ophiolite massive in the central part of the rise marks the area of mantle upheaval, coinciding with the ‘critical Nino3.4 region’ of operational WMO definitions. El Nino years prevail over the high plateau of temperature dynamics. These observations are meaningful in respect to the model of rotational forcing at the base of concerted global change. The mass/angular momentum transfer with magmatic activity is seen as a stabilizing feedback, with a lag about 2.5 years preliminarily inferred from a case study of El Nino /Mount Etna eruption dynamics.