Abstract

To document the relative accuracy of methods for microdata collection on root and tuber crop production, an experiment was implemented in Malawi over a 12-month period, randomly assigning cassava-producing households to one of four approaches: daily diary-keeping, with semi-weekly supervision visits; daily diary-keeping, with semi-weekly supervisory phone calls; two six-month recall interviews, with six months in between; and a single 12-month recall interview. Lapses in diary-keeping can underestimate true production, albeit to a lesser degree compared to recall. And the comparisons between the diary variants and the variation in underestimation by recall period are unclear ex ante. The analysis reveals that compared to traditional diary-keeping, the household-level annual cassava production is 295 kilograms higher, on average, (and assumed as closer to the truth) under diary-keeping with phone calls. This effect corresponds to 28 percent of the average traditional diary-keeping production estimate. Although the difference between the estimates based on six-month recall and traditional diary-keeping is statistically insignificant, 12-month recall underestimates annual production, on average, by 516 kilograms and 221 kilograms, respectively, compared to diary-keeping with phone calls and traditional diary-keeping. While the recall-based approaches both underestimate true production, six-month recall does so to a lesser extent. The evidence additionally demonstrates likely gross overestimation in international and ministerial statistics on cassava yields in Malawi. For improved microdata on root and tuber crop production, the adoption of (i) diary-keeping with phone calls (particularly if deployed in a broader mobile phone–based survey) or (ii) six-month recall, as a second-best alternative, is recommended.

Highlights

  • Agriculture is the backbone of the economy in rural areas that house nearly 70 percent of the population in low-income countries

  • Considering the importance of cassava for food security and the absence of best practices in accurate survey data collection on extended-harvest crop production and yields, we present the results of a household survey experiment that randomly assigned sampled households in top cassava-producing districts in Malawi to one of four approaches to cassava production measurement over a 12-month period

  • Under the assumption that true cassava production is underestimated due to incomplete recordkeeping even in diaries that are implemented over an extended period, the analysis reveals that compared to D1, the annual household cassava production was 295 kilograms higher, on average, under D2, corresponding to 28 percent of the D1 mean, and that the traditional gold standard is outperformed by a competing diary variant in terms of capturing cassava production as comprehensively as possible

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Summary

Introduction

Agriculture is the backbone of the economy in rural areas that house nearly 70 percent of the population in low-income countries. The importance of agriculture for development is recognized recently during the formulation of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Target 2.3, which requires doubling of agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers. In Africa, the average share of rural household income tied to agriculture could be as high as 69 percent (Davis et al, 2017), and the research has shown that compared to non-agricultural growth, agricultural growth translates into higher rates of poverty reduction (Dorosh and Thurlow, 2016). Despite the importance of agriculture for livelihoods, obtaining accurate and timely estimates on crop production and yields remains a significant challenge. In the context of root, tuber and tree crops, the primary concern around the accuracy of prevailing approaches to data collection in large-scale household and farm surveys that underlie official statistics is arguably the reliance on respondent recall

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