Root Causes of Violent Radicalization: Reconciling Fishermen V. Swarm Debate with a System Structure of a Terror Contagion

Abstract

This paper broadens the search for causes of radicalization leading to predatory mass violence beyond the well-known fishermen-swarm debate. We begin by creating a system hierarchy of five levels within which we synthesize expert theories of radicalization to present a complete system structure in a causal-loop diagram (CLD). From this we identify potential root-causes operating simultaneously at different levels of the hierarchy. Leveraging complexity science we demonstrate that six root causes operating at the highest level of system structure work together create a dynamic we term a ‘terror contagion’. As these root causes influence downwards into a system they create channels favoring different violent ideologies as well as radicalizaiton dynamics such as fishermen or swarm. This analysis demonstrates that swarm and fishermen are the effects of true root-causes of radicalization, and not the cause of radicalization itself. We conclude by proposing several experiments to test the proposed terror contagion hypothesis through traditional analysis as well as computer modeling and simulation.