Roles of climate changes and human interventions in land degradation: a case study by net primary productivity analysis in China’s Shiyanghe Basin

Abstract

The Thornthwaite Memorial, Synthetic, and Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) models, with inputs from SPOT-VGT-S10 NDVI data, meteorological data (precipitation, temperature, solar radiation), and land use data were used to estimate the values of net primary productivity (NPP) from 1999 to 2007 in China’s Shiyanghe Basin. The human appropriation of NPP, which represents the difference between potential NPP predicted using the climatic models and actual NPP calculated using the CASA model, served as the indicator of human intervention in the evolution of productivity of the land. Analysis showed that 78.9% (~9,172 km2) of the degradation occurring in the Shiyanghe Basin was caused by human activities versus 15.0% (~1,752 km2) that was caused by climatic factors, whereas 16.9% (~6,404.5 km2) of the vegetation restoration resulted from human activities versus 49.7% (~18,881 km2) that resulted from climate changes. Human activity played a key role in vegetation restoration in the central areas of the basin and in determining land degradation in the southwestern and northeastern areas. In addition, climate significantly controlled the vegetation restoration in the southwestern and northeastern areas and controlled land degradation in the central area.