Role Theory and Foreign Policy: Belarussian and Ukrainian Compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime

Abstract

This article examines the feasibility of using role theory as a tool for predicting compliance with the nuclear nonproliferation regime specifically and foreign policy generally. Following the work of K.J. Holsti, we correlated Belarussian and Ukrainian leaders' articulations of national role with their countries' subsequent behavior. We found that the use of national role conception as both an independent and mediating variable explains more cases ofcompliance and noncompliance with the nuclear nonproliferation regime than prevailing theories of proliferation.