Abstract

A discrete-time deterministic model is proposed of expected electoral choices in a large community of influencing each other participants. Each perspective voter opinion is affected by a restricted, small number of other decision-makers. General analysis and related computer simulations are done for a democratic multi-party system. Main observations reduce to the indication of the critical role of the so-called hard core electorate as well as to stressed importance of the time scales of the opinion formation periods. In particular, a mechanism is demonstrated when an initially small minority of extremists may, in a longer run, radicalize others and get majority of the votes.

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