Role of pine wilt disease based on optimal control strategy at multiple scales: A case study of Korea

Abstract

Pine wilt disease is one of the most serious conifer diseases: this is because pine trees contribute greatly to the economy and domestic wealth in Korea. Our model of this disease is based on the parametrisation of infectious pine trees in Korea for the period of 2010-2019. The model captures the growth in case onsets and the estimated results are almost compatible with the reported data. To control the spread of this disease to the whole pine tree community, we found a threshold parameter called 'basic reproduction number' using the nextgeneration matrix method. During the analysis of the model, equilibrium points were first computed: there are two points -one has no disease class and other has all the disease classes. For the global behaviour of the mathematical model of these two points, Lypunove functional theory was used for disease-free and endemic equilibrium. Sensitivity analysis was performed to observe the relative importance of these parameters to the transmission and prevalence of pine wilt disease. To control the dissemination of the disease, we formulated an optimal control problem. Strategies used to control this disease were based on the consequences of the significant effects of the estimated parameters on the basic reproduction number. We re-examined the mathematical system to determine the agreement between numerically and analytically calculated outcomes. After analysing the problem numerically, we can discern that the numerical findings support the results calculated analytically.