Role of Petroleum In a Changing Energy Scene

Abstract

Abstract Prior to the 1920"s, oil and gas were an insignificant part of the Canadian energy supply. During the last fifty years, their use has increased at dramatic rates and today they make up two-thirds of our annual energy consumption. The convenience, low price and plentiful supply of oil and gas undoubtedly have made them the most essential components of our affluent industrial state. Recent events in this country and offshore, related to the price and security of future petroleum supplies, have prompted an obvious concern among governments, academic communities and the country at large. There is it clear need for a reassessment of our future petroleum supplies and our dependence on that resource. This paper examines that dependence and the future outlook for petroleum availability. To round out the treatment, alternative energy sources are briefly discussed. INTRODUCTION "ON THIS CONTINENT, we have less than 15 years of proven oil production in sight; (and) our known re- serves of natural gas, which have been declining in relation to consumption, now amount to less· than 25 years" supply." Although the words of that quotation have little contemporary shock value, you may be surprised to learn that they were printed nearly twenty years ago in a Royal Commission study on Canadian Energy Prospects, "How little things have changed". is the conclusion one is tempted to make. However, change cannot be gauged so easily. A variety of historical data have been collected for this paper to show the many aspects of petroleum"s changing role in the energy scene. The statistics are interesting, but; more importantly, they provide an understanding of the past, which is a prerequisite for planning the future. Historical Use of Energy in Canada Average annual energy consumption in Canada for the past fifty years is shown in Figure 1. The units are trillions of Btu"s per year. A fifty-year study period has been selected for the following reasons:it encompasses the emergence of" petroleum as a major energy source;it includes periods of varying economic growth and the major upheaval of a world war; andreasonably reliable statistics are available for the entire period. The data shown have been compiled from several sources and it was not always possible to determine the assumptions used by the original authors. As a result, there may be minor discrepancies in some of the values, but the accuracy is high enough to make the trends meaningful. In order to compare hydro and nuclear power with electricity generated from fossil fuels, primary consumption from hydro and nuclear sources has been consumption on the basis of 1 kilowatt hour = 10,000 Btu's. In the late twenties, coal was our major energy source, supplying about two-thirds of the total primary energy requirements. Petroleum met only 10 per cent.