Role of neoadjuvant rectal score in prognosis and adjuvant chemotherapy decision-making in locally advanced rectal cancer following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy

Abstract

Objectives: To assess the prognostic impact of the neoadjuvant rectal (NAR) score following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC), as well as its value in guiding decisions for adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: Between August 2015 and August 2018, patients were eligible from the STELLAR phase III trial (NCT02533271) who received short-course radiotherapy plus consolidation chemotherapy and for whom the NAR score could be calculated. Based on the NAR score, patients were categorized into low (＜8), intermediate (8-16), and high (＞16) groups. The Kaplan-Meier method, log rank tests, and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to evaluate the impact of the NAR score on disease-free survival (DFS). Results: Out of the 232 patients, 24.1%, 48.7%, and 27.2% had low (56 cases), intermediate (113 cases), and high NAR scores (63 cases), respectively. The median follow-up period was 37 months, with 3-year DFS rates of 87.3%, 68.3%, and 53.4% (P＜0.001) for the low, intermediate, and high NAR score groups. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the NAR score (intermediate NAR score: HR, 3.10, 95% CI, 1.30-7.37, P=0.011; high NAR scores: HR=5.44, 95% CI, 2.26-13.09, P＜0.001), resection status (HR, 3.00, 95% CI, 1.64-5.52, P＜0.001), and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR, 3.25, 95% CI, 2.01-5.27, P＜0.001) were independent prognostic factors for DFS. In patients with R0 resection, the 3-year DFS rates were 97.8% and 78.0% for those with low and intermediate NAR scores who received adjuvant chemotherapy, significantly higher than the 43.2% and 50.6% for those who did not (P＜0.001, P=0.002). There was no significant difference in the 3-year DFS rate (54.2% vs 53.3%, P=0.214) among high NAR score patients, regardless of adjuvant chemotherapy. Conclusions: The NAR score is a robust prognostic indicator in LARC following neoadjuvant short-course radiotherapy and consolidation chemotherapy, with potential implications for subsequent decisions regarding adjuvant chemotherapy. These findings warrant further validation in studies with larger sample sizes.