Role of Gross Domestic Expenditure on Research and Development on Economic GDP A Time Series Forecasting Approach Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

Abstract: Research and development is considered as one of the important factor to contribute strongly for sustainable development goals (SDG -9). These further may help in building resilient infrastructure, promoting industrialization, and fostering innovation. Contributions to research and development (GERD) and the number of researchers employed in R&D activities have a significant impact on research and development. The Innovation Index delves deeper than just total GERD figures. It analyzes how effectively countries allocate their R&D resources. This particularly provides reward to the countries that prioritize research in key areas like renewable energy, healthcare, and digital technologies while also considering the efficiency and impact of their R&D spending. The current availability of limited data for index-based studies is not conducive to the design of policy scenarios and technology deployment models. In this paper, we have studied various machine learning models and have employed the ARIMA model to study the impact of data variables to forecast time series forecasting. In this study, a comprehensive R&D spending estimate and its correlation with other variables is analyzed to reveal the global GERD shuffle to escalate the studies on technology impact.