Role of foreign direct investment inflows in the development of BRICS: a study of forecasting of FDI inflows from 2018 to 2028

Abstract

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) is a regional group of the fastest developing and growing economies in the world. BRICS as a group of the fastest growing economies that poses a threat to the economies of developed countries. Recent trend in foreign investment shows that FDI inflow is increasing in developing countries in comparison to developed countries. It is an opportunity for the policymakers of regional groups like BRICS to forecast the value of FDI inflow and provide the information to the foreign investors for potential of economic development and growth. In this study, an attempt is made to forecast the FDI inflow using ARIMA model. ACF and PACF plots are used to fix the parameter of ARIMA model (p, d, q). ARIMA (0, 1, 1) with drift is found to be the most suitable model for forecasting of FDI Inflow into BRICS for a period of ten years (2018-2028). Forecasted value of FDI inflow shows a positive and increasing trend during the forecasted period. Finding of study suggest increased trend of FDI inflow in BRICS.