Role of Earth Observation in multi-(hazard-)risk assessment and management 

Abstract

Impacts from hazards have drastically increased over the last decades, leading to both economic and non-economic consequences across the globe (Cutter 2018; IPCC 2023; Poljansek et al. 2017). When multiple hazards and their interactions are taken into consideration, it becomes apparent that the impacts of a combination of hazards are different than the sum of the individual events (Kappes et al. 2012; Terzi et al. 2019). In response to the widespread consequences of recent multi-hazard events and the appeals from the international community to improve their assessment and management (e.g., UNDRR 2019), there has been a transition in recent years from a primarily single-hazard paradigm towards a more comprehensive assessment of multi-hazards (Ward et al. 2022; De Angeli et al. 2022; AghaKouchak et al. 2020). While there is an urgent need to enhance preparedness for high-impact multi-hazard events, the means to achieve this are currently not clear. In the context of the European Space Agency’s (ESA) EO4Multihazards project (High-Impact Multi-Hazards Science), we capitalize on the latest advances in satellite Earth Observation technology, including the Copernicus Sentinels series, the ESA’s Earth Explorers, and the meteorological missions to better understand the drivers and dynamics leading to high impact cascading and compounding multi-hazard events, and to improve the estimation of the impacts on society and ecosystems. The project will develop four science cases, tackling both compound and cascading events, along with corresponding demonstration cases aiming to derive actionable information from the scientific developments. The outcomes will be part of an open multi-hazard events database designed to facilitate collaborative research and future scientific progress. Two science cases investigate the effects of climate-related extreme events in the Adige River catchment. One focusing on hot/dry events on the Alpine mountainous region, where raising temperatures and lack of snowfalls cause hydrological impacts that compound with heatwaves and wildfires. The other one evaluates the impact of climate-related extreme events on the middle-lower course of the river: data driven tools will be implemented to describe the interactions between climate-related hazards, coastal hazards such as sea level rise and saltwater intrusion, anthropogenic land use, and water quantity and quality parameters. The third science case is located in the Southeast region of the UK where the impacts of hot/dry compound in a scenario of sustained high temperatures and their effects on the stability of the terrain and geologically driven events are being evaluated. The last science case focuses on the small island developing State of Dominica to evaluate the multi-hazard scenario mainly from a wet compound and volcanic perspective (i.e., successive storms, landslides, volcanic hazards, and cross-border issues) using digital twins and advanced modelling. The overall goal is to maximize societal benefits by evaluating where space-based EO can support disaster risk management, aligning with literature calls for such evaluations, and contributing to a comprehensive understanding of multi-hazard events to support decision-makers and relief efforts.