Role of climate variability in the potential predictability of tropical cyclone formation in tropical and subtropical western North Pacific Ocean

Yu-Lin K Chang,Yasumasa Miyazawa,Swadhin Behera

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-56243-y

Yu-Lin K Chang, Yasumasa Miyazawa + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56243-y

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Abstract

The out of phase tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific associated with local low-level wind vorticity anomaly, driven by the remote central and eastern equatorial Pacific warming/cooling, is investigated based on the reanalysis and observational data in the period of 1979−2017. TC frequencies in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific appear to be connected to different remote heating/cooling sources and are linked to eastern and central Pacific warming/cooling, which are in turn related to canonical El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENSO Modoki, respectively. TCs formed in subtropics (SfTC) are generally found to be associated with a dipole in wind vorticity anomaly, which is driven by the tropical eastern Pacific warming/cooling. Tropically formed TCs (TfTC) are seen to be triggered by the single-core of wind vorticity anomaly locally associated with the warming/cooling of central and eastern Pacific. The predicted ENSOs and ENSO Modokis, therefore, provide a potential source of seasonal predictability for SfTC and TfTC frequencies.

Highlights

The present study explores the out of phase TC formations in subtropical and tropical western North Pacific in relation to central and eastern equatorial Pacific warming/cooling based on the past 39 years (1979–2017) atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data and observations
More TCs were generated over the positive low-level wind vorticity anomaly region
Frequencies of TCs in the subtropical and tropical western North Pacific appear to be connected to different remote forcings that are generally linked to canonical ENSO and the combined effect of canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki, respectively

Summary

Introduction

The present study explores the out of phase TC formations in subtropical and tropical western North Pacific in relation to central and eastern equatorial Pacific warming/cooling based on the past 39 years (1979–2017) atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis data and observations.

Results

Conclusion