Role of Chinese cities in abating aviation carbon emissions based on gridded population data and power law model

Abstract

As a major source of carbon emissions, the civil aviation sector needs a feasible path for low-carbon transition. Owing to the dynamics of travel demand in China, the spatial patterns of aviation emissions are difficult to foresee or simulate in scenario analysis. To address this issue, we predicted the spatial patterns of aviation carbon emissions in China at the city level using projected gridded population data and power law model. The results show that China's civil aviation sector will have a cumulative emission abatement potential of 7027 million tons from 2020 to 2060 if all abatement measures can be implemented. The contribution of individual cities was quantified based on expected changes in population, airport planning, and economic development. Megacities and metropolitan cities will contribute to 58.1 % and 26.2 % of the total emission abatement, respectively. The eastern, central, and western regions of China will contribute to 64.2 %, 15.8 %, and 20.0 % of the total abatement, respectively. The abatement potentials before and after 2040 are expected to account for 20.0 % and 80.0 % of the whole from 2020 to 2060. Therefore, some regions and cities can be regarded as key or pilot areas to implement abatement measures. Finally, policy implications of the results are presented.