Role of carryover effects in conservation of wild Pacific salmon migrating regulated rivers

Abstract

AbstractDetermining which factors are most effective for mitigative strategies in conservation management can be difficult for species with complex life cycles. Salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) migrating through a hydroelectric power system experience conditions that can affect their survival directly within a life stage and indirectly in subsequent life stages through carryover effects. We quantified the association of covariates with survival across life stages of Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha): juveniles migrating downstream, juveniles in the estuary, subadults in the ocean, and adults migrating upstream. We applied a hierarchical Bayesian mark–recapture model to ~400,000 wild Snake River Chinook salmon (Pacific Northwest, USA). Modeled covariates of survival included migration timing, river temperature, flow, percent of water spilled over dams, snow water equivalent, juvenile fish transportation, juvenile fish length, dam powerhouse passage, sea surface temperature, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation. By analyzing these covariates in a unified model, we evaluated their relationships to survival within and across life stages in a common currency. Among direct effects, the negative relationship of sea surface temperature to ocean survival had the largest marginal effect size. Carryover effects also had substantial marginal effect sizes. Ocean survival was associated positively with juvenile length and snow water equivalent and negatively with river temperature. In comparison, direct effects on juvenile and adult survival generally showed smaller marginal effect sizes. Both juvenile and adult survival were negatively associated with river temperature. Juvenile survival increased with fish length, while adult survival was positively related to flow and negatively to percent water spilled at dams. The greatest variability in survival, however, was in the ocean stage. Thus, as the ocean continues to warm and as the human population exerts more pressure on the ecosystem, carryover effects will be increasingly important for recovering salmon and other migratory species.