Role of Atlantification in Enhanced Primary Productivity in the Barents Sea

Abstract

AbstractRecent changes in the Arctic sea‐ice are strongly influenced by the recent increase in heat transport from vigorous Atlantic inflows, so‐called Atlantification. This Atlantification can induce physical and ecological changes near the Atlantic gateway. Here, we used the observational data sets and 26 Earth system models to estimate Atlantic water intrusion, and firstly suggest the impact of Atlantification on marine productivity in the Barents Sea in a warming climate, especially on boreal spring. In a warming climate, the heat transport across the Barents Sea Opening (BSO) is projected to be enhanced (45.5 ± 34.9 TW) by the end of the 21st century compared to the present climate. This poleward intrusion of the Atlantic water is likely to increase productivity with the largest increase in spring (70%). In a warming climate, the productivity is enhanced by Atlantification‐induced changes in physical states—ocean temperature, circulations, stratification, and sea‐ice. Based on inter‐model analyses, we estimated that the Atlantification can explain approximately 26% of the productivity changes in the Barents Sea. Thus, Atlantification is critical for future changes in biological productivity and physical states over the Arctic Ocean.